According to Goldman Sachs’ research division, China is poised to surpass its current wind and solar energy target by nearly triple the amount. The report by Goldman Sachs indicates that China’s combined capacity for wind and solar energy is projected to reach 3.3 terawatts (TW) by 2030, significantly exceeding the government’s current target of 1.2 TWh. This analysis suggests that if China maintains its current momentum in deploying wind and solar technologies, it could achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060.
Goldman Sachs asserts that China’s long-term solution for attaining energy independence lies in the establishment of an affordable renewable energy system, complemented by adequate energy storage and smart grid transmission. By adopting this approach, China aims to decrease its reliance on imported fossil fuels.
By 2030, the bank anticipates that China’s progress in renewable energy will contribute to a 10% reduction in energy imports. However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that this is just the initial phase of the country’s efforts.
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, if China follows their projected acceleration in renewable installations, it could potentially reduce its energy imports by 50% by the early 2040s. The analysts also predict that the increasing deployment of wind and solar energy in China, driven by cost innovations in the renewable sector, will eventually result in lower energy expenses for consumers.
In order to achieve these ambitious targets, China will need to invest approximately $2.26 trillion by 2040 in renewable energy and grid storage. The country’s storage capacity requirement is estimated to be around 520 gigawatts (GW), with more than three-quarters of it expected to come from batteries. This represents a significant increase compared to the capacity in 2021, equivalent to 70 times the current level. The remaining portion of the storage capacity will be sourced from pumped hydropower stations.
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The report’s authors anticipate that a smart and interconnected grid will play a crucial role in China’s Energy Internet. This modernized power system will integrate diverse energy sources and facilitate large-scale interactive transmission and transactions of energy. The expansion of the Energy Internet will drive the adoption of advanced power and transmission solutions, including virtual power plants, big data analytics, and real-time power dispatching. These innovations will enable a more significant integration of renewable energy into the overall energy generation mix.
However, it is important to acknowledge that if the actual investment falls short of the forecasts and expectations outlined in the Goldman Sachs report, China’s ability to achieve these ambitious goals could be affected. Nonetheless, among the countries currently pursuing a transition towards sustainable energy, China possesses the necessary resources and determination to reach remarkable heights in this endeavor.